Sunday, September 17th
By Riley Magnuson
Week two equals another business trip for the Pack all the way down to Atlanta to face the 1-0 Falcons and Desmond Ritter at QB. While last week was a successful start to 2023 and this week brings optimism again, this will be a really tough test against an improving defense and a really tough rushing attack. Without Aaron Jones and again Christian Watson, Green Bay will need some playmakers to step up, as well as their defense to deliver a winning performance.
This week was a little difficult to find options, but I feel very solid about the two that we’ve got rolling today down in Georgia! We broke even last week after Jones’ injury, but we live to fight another day! Best of luck today and GO PACK GO!
2023 Record: 1-1 (+0.0u)
All-Time Record: 42-45 (+0.78u)
AJ Dillon o1.5 Rec (W)
Aaron Jones Over 58.5 Rush (L)
AJ Dillon Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110) (0.5u)
This one might not seem flashy, and we barely won our over 1.5 receptions bet on AJ last week, but the production throughout the game should be shifted with Aaron Jones sidelined for this contest. I am not suggesting that Dillon will have over 80 yards through the air like Jones did, but involving the running back in the pass game is a massive aspect of the Packers’ attack, and with fewer options, I am expecting Dillon to catch at least three today for over 20 yards.
During last week’s Atlanta-Carolina game, the Panthers involved Miles Sanders in a similar fashion that I expect Dillon to be used today, running the ball 18 times, and grabbing four receptions for 26 yards. Ideally, those receptions will be the same and the carries will be higher, hoping the Packers are in a position to ice the game late, but I believe the production through the first three quarters will be similar.
Devonte Wyatt Over 0.45 Sacks (+220) (0.25u)
This one is a smaller swing that brings value with the higher odds. The main concern with this one is the run heavy attack that Atlanta brings to each game, but with higher odds, there is some strong reasoning that leads this to maintain its’ value. In 2022, while they as mentioned operate a very run-heavy approach, it should shift a little bit with Desmond Ritter taking the reins fulltime as it did towards the end of last season. When they did pass last year, yes they only were sacked 11th most per game, their sack allowed percentage when they did drop back to pass ranked 26th.
I brought in Devonte Wyatt because this man was very nearly a game-wrecking menace in Chicago last week. I saw “very nearly” and chose this pick however, because had it not been for one of the top sack escape artists in Justin Fields last week as the opponent, Wyatt could have potentially been looking at a 3+ sack performance. He still managed to come up with 1.5 last week, and this time all it takes is a half sack to cash this selection. While the offensive line is improved a bit this week as compared to Chicago, I expect Wyatt to still have a strong performance, finding his way into the backfield, and when he does, significantly less issue bringing down the QB. We’re getting in on the Wyatt breakout early folks!
This Packers’ SB31 Champ played five seasons with Atlanta from 1990-1994 making four pro-bowls, tallying over 1000 yards and double digit touchdowns four times each. He holds their single season receiving touchdown record with 15 in 1993.