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Friday 04/02 MLB Lines Report




We have one game from Thursday moving to Friday due to the weather (BAL @ BOS). This game opened at BOS -175 for opening day. It has reopened for Friday at BOS -166. This happens due to the line movement prior to the cancelation, then in essence, just carries into Friday based on off the line moves of Thursday. No pitching changes were made.

The variances in these at “open” are not realistic so don’t pay much attention to that. When a book opens a line, only a few players have access to it and for limited wagering amounts. The purpose is to help the book adjust their line based on the wagering from these special few who have access to it, thus “our” open lines are the market lines after the open. Anyway, one that sticks out is the SF Giants. Rotation number 927. My lines suggest a coin flip line and the odds are set at -125 for SEA. This means we have a .27 basis points edge, which is roughly a 5.95% +EV expectation.

The MIA Marlins (Rotation Number 926) odds should be watched closely. TB is -113 FAV but should be -103, thus .10 basis points edge to MIA or 2.3% +EV expectation. This could grow with wagers on TB, so we could gain value here. Similarly, OAK is -136 and should be -118 giving HOU (Rotation Number 923) .18 basis points of value or 4.13% +EV expectation. Stay away from the LA Dodgers line as that is the most out of whack and might be an issue.


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