Wagering baseball requires a plan, discipline to stay on the plan, and evaluation to make sure the path you are following is not leading to failure. Results come to those who follow these guidelines. The results are attainable even though it seems not at times. Opening day was a microcosm of that in one day!
There were 4 extra innings games. There were two large -200> favorites that lost, costly errors, poor RISP and LOB performances, and walk-off walks! Over the course of thousands of wagering opportunities, a baseball season presents, you will see amazing things. You will often wonder about the caliber of the player too. The end to the SFG – SEA game was an example.
These graphics show that SFG had a 98.2% winning probability going into the bottom of the 8th inning! Going into the top of the 9th inning they had a 15.8% probability! After the 1st batter of the top of the 9th inning, they had a 50% probability. Long story short, SFH had a 6-1 lead going into the bottom of the 8th inning. Going into the top of the 9th they were behind 7-6, then hit a home run to tie the game at 7-7. The game went into extra innings wherein the 10th inning the reliever for SFG walked 3 batters without getting an out and walked in the game-winning run!
The chart above is the ARI @ SD game where I played SD F5 -0.5. They came into that inning ahead 6-1. The highlighted area shows a 94.3% winning probability. SD only needs three outs and I win my wager. The 3rd out highlighted area is where Tatis, Jr makes an error which would have been the last out and I win the wager. The next batter then hits a home run and ARI takes the lead, and SD does not score in the bottom of the 5th so I lose my wager! This happens everyday in baseball in some way or another. Games are often won and lost by giving the opponent too many extra chances to capitalize on.
MLB is a daily grind. We must make good wagers, then let the results catch up to the strategies if necessary. Results are why we wager but we don’t control them. We control our thoughts which leads to the strategy we employ. We must stay disciplined on our path. We can adjust where we find ourselves off the path, but it is important to not take any stretch of games too seriously over the course of the season. We MUST verify our handicap was right via analysis of box scores and such. You have to know your path is correct so you can repeat making good wagers. Results are important, but the reasons you made the choices are often more important when betting baseball.
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Jeff Dawson
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