For MLB, Many times lines open at inflated numbers as books are looking to set lines by the movement of them prior to the day of the game. These are referred to as overnight lines. We should be careful betting on these numbers because they are designed to be a safety blanket for the book. We still want EV+ edges so don’t waver from that. My lines are starting to vary from the book which is good. As the pitching matchups are getting convoluted by good pitchers mixed with bad ones, the books are struggling to figure out where the line should be. Hopefully, I have done enough homework to gain an edge in these weaker pitcher outings.
A couple of noteworthy findings. I have 3 games where my favorites are dogs! This is good news! We get to look into betting favorites at dog prices! I have ATL Morton, CIN Mahle, and MIN Berrios slight FAV and they are all listed as dogs. Morton and Berrios provide the best value in these spots. It also appears the books are not favoring either LAD or SD like I do. They are big favorites, but I have them bigger one. Will need to look into wagering spots for big favs. HOU McCullers is only -125 vs OAK Irvin. Cole Irvin is a temporary 5th starter as Puk and Jeffries were sent out for more work. Irvin has made only 3 MLB starts in his career. He has pitched in 19 games so he is a spot starter at best. He pitched for PHI the last 2 seasons. He has a career FIP of 5.09, xFIP of 4.98and SIERA 4.87. He is not a big strike out guy with 17.2% career numbers. Look for him to like an opener and OAK to have a bullpen day which squarely puts HOU in the picture as play with EV+ value. My other findings are that many large favorites are 20 basis points too high like NYY, CLE, CHC, and BOS. These lines should reopen 10 basis points lower in the morning. Here is a spot where betting the overnight line brings CLV (closing line value) edges. I am not going to die if a miss a couple basis of CLV but I am not opposed to getting the best of it either. I am not a big dog hinter that way, so it doesn’t play into my approach or planning.
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