Notes for Easter based on lines. CJC remains a team with a large fan base drawing inflated lines. You need to stomach wagering on the PIT though. CHC Davies -170 @ Bookmaker. My lines show -133 creating 37 basis points edge to PIT or 7.81% EV+ edge. LAA with Ohtani is also showing a 21 basis points inflated line, which creates a 4.75% EV+ edge to CHW.
Every Sunday in MLB, not just Easter Sunday, is it’s own entity. MLB managers like to rest players (often catchers) as they come of Saturday night games and travel on Monday. The lineups are always in question on Sunday. Another issue is the travel for the team moving on to a new city. There are many times where teams have to catch a flight by a certain time. They have already checked out of their hotels need to be at the airport in time to make the flight. You will often see aggressive swings and early in the at-bats. Instead of trying to wear down a pitcher, the idea is to pressure him by being aggressive, swinging early and often. This many times shortens a game allowing for airport ride to be on time. However, if the pitcher is throwing well, he adapts to that strategy and uses the aggressiveness against the batters thus gets through innings without having to work hard! Make sure to tie in all things when not just line variances.
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