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NOTES: Today the rest of the leagues start their new series. Interesting matchups with ATL/BOS and LAD /HOU. Only one game with no listed pitcher (CHC/PIT). There is one game with no line SFG/ARI but I have made one.

There are two games where my model likes the dog as the favorite today. It likes BOS -108 Richards vs ATL Morton whereas the books like ATL -115, which creates 23 basis points of variance or 5.16% EV+ on BOS. For reference, every 10 basis points of variance equal 2.38% edge. The other game my model likes is SDP Musgrave -117 vs MIL Burnes. MIL is a -120 fav so there are 37 basis points of value on SDP! Worth a deeper look for both games!

The games where my model and the line is off by 20 or more basis points are CIN/WSH (21) edge to WSH, KCR/TBR (27) edge to KCR, LAD/HOU (21) edge to LAD, and just missing that mark is STL/CHW (19) edge to STL.

WSH Scherzer is now the 5th best projected pitcher in MLB. No surprise my model favors him here. LAD Kershaw is also in that same area as the 11th best pitcher in MLB. The issue there is that LAD projects as the best team too with a w% of .601% tied with SDP! SDP w% leads to why they my model makes them favorites over a very good pitcher in Burnes. MIL Burnes projects as the 4th best pitcher in MLB, but SDP counters with Musgrove who is 14th. This is the difference why my model has SDP favorites today and not yesterday when Snell threw for SDP. He is not as highly projected so MIL ended up being favored.

I am intrigued by STL Flaherty today. Giolito has not been superior not is he superior to Flaherty.

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See you at the Winners Circle

Jeff Dawson


PS.. Hope everyone enjoyed the INDIANS +122️ Winner vs White Sox

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