NOTES: My model shows one team that should be favored and is dog today. BOS is a dog to LAA today, but my model says they should be fav. This creates 42 basis points of value or an 8.68% EV edge!

There are 2 games still awaiting pitchers (NYM, MIA). There are 3 other games with no bookmaker line (ATL, PHI, CIN).

My model suggests MIN and HOU are too large of favorites today. MIN Berrios is -145 vs OAK. The model suggests MIN -113 is more apt and that is 32 basis points variance. Likewise, HOU Garcia is -180 vs TEX. The model suggests HOU -123 which is 57 basis points of variance. Both of these games then should be looked into for wagering on the dog.

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Jeff Dawson


PS.. Hope everyone enjoyed the INDIANS +122️ Winner vs White Sox

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