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NOTES: My model suggests there are two teams that are dogs that should be the favorites today. It like DET as more pick’em -105 when the books like CHC -138. This comes from DET Boyd being almost twice the pitcher of Hendricks and being at home. It also likes OAK as favorites in stead of pick’em vs MIN. OAK Bassitt rates higher and the A’s are better so it has them -124 instead of -102. These are two games to take a look at for sure.

There are 5 games today where the variance in the lines are 20 basis points or more. Those games are LAA/BOS (23), NYM/TBR (38), ATL/MIL (34), TEX/HOU (38), and KCR/CHW (24). The short favorites are BOS, NYM, and MIL. The long favorites (by too much) are HOU and CHW.

There are two games without a line. The NYY/BAL because BAL has no starting pitcher yet. The other is CLE/SEA where I have a line and the books do not.

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Jeff Dawson


PS.. Hope everyone enjoyed the INDIANS +122️ Winner vs White Sox

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