NOTES: My model was pretty good yesterday with the new series starting. Lots of variance showing the way. Today is less games with variance but still quite a few. There are only 5 games with 20 basis points of variance or more. They are TBR/BAL (25), CHW/MIN(42), NYY/TEX(22), MIL/KCR*(32), and COL/SDP(86). The MIL/KCR games really depends on where you can wager. Circa in Las Vegas has -188 and Bookmaker offshore has -155 which either creates a variance or does not!

The SFG are a small dog and my model suggests they should be 50/50 coin flip game. The variance is just short of 20 basis points at 19. 19 basis points is 4.34% EV+.

The one that stands out is the CHW again. They are -115 but my model says they should be -157! This is Lance Lynn who is one of the best pitchers in the AL for CHW today facing a team that is struggling. There is great value here.

There are 3 games not yet lined. MIA, NYM, and ARI have not listed a pitcher yet for those games.

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Jeff Dawson


PS.. Hope everyone enjoyed the INDIANS +122️ Winner vs White Sox

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