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NOTES: My model continues to like NYM way better than the books. Yesterday I looked closely but it was not the right spot. It will likely not be the right spot today either considering Peterson’s best effort of his career was his last outing. He likely will not follow that up with a strong performance. I need an answer quickly to whether the Mets are as good as my model suggests and will continue to monitor.

HOU is getting a strong look from my model today. I believe it is more of COL being graded too highly from the sportsbook which creates an opportunity with HOU today. Rarely is -145 as great value but when it should be -192, it becomes a strong EV+ scenario. The4 variance is 47 basis points which are 9.51% EV+ Edge! Definitely worthy of s closer look!

SD Dinelson Lamet and DET Spender Turnbull are making their 2021 debuts today. Lamet, if all goes well, will line up to pitch against the Dodgers over the weekend. I like to bet against guys coming off the IL but not in this situation. Yes, they are coming off the IL, but have not been pitching. The idea is to bet against guys coming off the IL who have been in the rotation and throwing regularly. Often, they will need a few starts to regain their quality of performance so going against them in their first couple of starts is an opportunity to look into.

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See you at the Winners Circle

Jeff Dawson


PS.. Hope everyone enjoyed the INDIANS +122️ Winner vs White Sox

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