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NOTES: It is interesting to see my model have overwhelming variance to the FAVs today. There are only 3 games where it has indicated the FAV is too large with one of them worth checking into. The TBR are -155 vs NYM where my model says TBR is -135 FAV. The main reason for this is the NYM projected wins are now more than that of the SDP making them 2nd most win in the NL behind only the LAD. NYM .575 and 93 wins. SDP .568 92 wins. My model has always liked the Mets and now more than SDP. TBR pitcher today is Glasnow. He is a legitimate ACE, so the game does merit a deeper dive, however, ACEs matter!

On to the FAVs that seem short. SDP are .69 basis points too low, LAD .34, SFG .28, and NYY .23. These are the ones over .20 basis points variance. However, to play these FAVs, you’ll need a hefty bankroll and a high risk tolerance. All but SFG are -180 or more. SFG looks like a great value at -143. This is a game to dive into.

There is no line in the 1st game of the double header with KCR and CHW but my line is large to CHW. Another no line game is LAA and BOS. My line suggests BOS -133. Needs to see how much the bookmakers lowered LAA and raised BOS. There could be a edge here.

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Jeff Dawson


PS.. Hope everyone enjoyed the INDIANS +122️ Winner vs White Sox

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