PGA Tour Best Bets: The Masters
By Riley Magnuson
Tuesday, April 4th 2023
From the greenest of green grass, the white caddy uniforms, to the green jacket, The Masters is a spectacle unlike any other in sports.
As professional golf has become divided in many senses, the pageantry of The Masters has the power to bring so many together, whether that be the players or those watching at home.
For those that adore this tournament, this weekend may rank at or near the top of your list of preferred events on the sports calendar, and for those that wager responsibly, this tournament can rank near the top of a bettors list as well.
As for me, I am looking to build on what has been a successful season, despite the recent regression for myself and these blogs. I have four golfers this week with a few different wagers on each, and will also bring some nationality props to the table as well. However you decide to enjoy this tournament, I wish you great times and the best of luck! Now let’s dive into the action!
2023 PGA Record: 8-30 (+1.38u)
All-Time PGA Record: 27-62 (+18.25)
Outright Winner (+4500) (0.1 units) Top 10 (+300) (0.2 units) Top 20 (+120) (0.5 units) Top Asian (+175) (0.3 units)
With a nice weekend off in the rear-view, Sungjae is poised to build off of his previous two top 20 finishes in March with a beauty of a run at Augusta this week. After two top ten finishes earlier in the year, Im coasted a bit through February, before turning it back on with a T21 at the Arnold Palmer, T6 at the Players Champ, and a T17 at the bracket style WGC two weeks ago.
This will be Sungjae’s fourth try at the Masters, with the first three showing a 2nd, a missed cut and an 8th place finish. Of course the missed cut is not what you want, but the two top ten finishes in his early career here are outstanding.
With a strong track record over a small sample size, along with strong form leading in, I love Im’s chances to make some serious waves. He will need to continue his dominance over Par 5’s to execute well this week. He is currently 3rd on tour in Par 5 scoring averages.
In addition to the usual finishing position wagers, I also added in Sungjae to finish as the top Asian competitor with his competition standing five deep with Matsuyama, Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim, and KH Lee.
Justin Rose Outright Winner (+5500) (0.1 units) Top 10 (+460) (0.2 units) Top 20 (+165) (0.4 units) Top GB/IRE (+800) (0.2 units)
Currently in the midst of a really strong bounceback season, Justin Rose is a player that I love this week. Now 20th in the FedEx Cup Standings, and back up to 36th in the World Golf Rankings, Rose is flying under the radar despite a victory at Pebble Beach earlier this year. He did follow that up with two missed cuts, but since then, he has been stellar with a T6 at the Players and a T36 at the Valspar a few weeks ago. Now with a few weeks of rest and a brilliant track record at Augusta, Rose finds himself in a bit of a dark horse position.
In 17 attempts at Augusta, Rose has made the cut in 15 of those runs, and among multiple top 10’s he finished runner-up in 2015 and 2017. Still searching for the elusive victory here, I like Rose for a multitude of reasons to have a great tournament, but there’s another angle that I love.
I added Rose to finish as the top English or Irish Player this weekend, over a few strong names, including Rory McIlroy. As tough as that pill may be to swallow, I made the conclusion that Rory, the first or second favorite depending on your book, to be listed among this group of players at anywhere from +100 to +120 was a stinky number that felt waaay too good to be true. On top of that, Rose was listed on FanDuel at +650 ahead of Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry.
Line shopping will get you a better number and may have him behind those guys, but this was really eye opening to me, and pushed me over the edge on a guy that I’ve been trying to buy low on all season long.
Collin Morikawa Outright Winner (+2800) (0.1 units) Top 10 (+210) (0.3 units) Top USA (+1400) (0.2 units)
I will keep these last two a little shorter and sweeter, but looking at Morikawa, you might consider his 2023 campaign to be a bit disappointing, strictly considering his expectations. Despite the results, Morikawa is still 15th in the FedEx Cup Standings on the year, and remains 12th in the world.
I really liked the momentum he was building near the end of the Players, and with a solid track record here, I really think this could be the breakout for the 2023 season that we have been looking for in Morikawa. This will be the fourth time that Morikawa has attended the Masters, and in each instance he has improved, with a 44th, 18th and a 5th in each of the last three seasons.
I threw in Top USA finisher among a crowded pack, but along with the upcoming selection, I did like the odds for that, as long as Scottie Scheffler comes down to earth a bit.
Patrick Cantlay Outright Winner (+2000) (0.1 units) Top 10 (+165) (0.3 units) Top USA (+1100) (0.2 units)
Slightly different from Morikawa, but Cantlay also in some ways has not lived up to expectations during the 2023 season. That could be subjective, as he still ranks 4th in the world, but it’s the consistency that keeps him in these conversations.
His best finish this season is a 3rd place finish at The Genesis, but still his odds pricing here are tough for me to ignore. His odds are listing him well ahead of guys that are bigger names, or are playing better in recent weeks, yet he is being listed as a top five contender for this tournament.
His track record here is fine, with a couple of top 20’s, but despite that, his odds are jumping off of the page at you. I will latch onto that confidence level from the oddsmakers and add him along with the USA prop as well for Cantlay. He is a ho-hum, under the radar guy, and this could be the week that he reminds us all how good he can be.