Wednesday, February 8th
The PGA Tour heads to Arizona this weekend for a star-studded affair that proves to be the perfect theater to build up to the big game on Sunday evening. I am absolutely juiced for this one, maybe because it is one of my favorite tournaments of they year, maybe because the field is absolutely stacked, or maybe because we are off and rolling HOT into 2023, off the heels of a 35-1 outright winner last week with Justin Rose at Pebble Beach.
Whatever the reason, I’ve got a couple of plays that I am very excited about and have my sights set on another profitable weekend on the links.
Stay tuned to my Twitter for any adds, or hedge opportunities during the weekend! Best of luck this weekend on all of your action, let’s get into it!
2023 PGA Record: 4-5 (+4.63u)
All-Time PGA Record: 23-37 (+21.5u)
Outright Winner +3500
Top 10 +320
Top 20 +140
The 20th ranked golfer in the world rolls into TPC Scottsdale among the top 15 highest odds to win the whole thing, and seemingly appears to be overshadowed by the biggest names of the sport. I can understand that from afar, but digging in further, I think the odds are a bit disrespectful.
Matsuyama has a track record as good or better than anybody at this golf course throughout his career. Across nine starts, he has two outright victories at this tournament, two top fives, and zero missed cuts. He has finished outside of the top 20 only twice, once due to a withdrawal via injury, and two years ago with a 42nd place finish. He bounced back from that 42nd place finish last year with an eighth place run at -13, one stroke shy of his winning score in 2016.
In accordance with the strong track record here, it appears that Matsuyama has been building up to this tournament to this point in the season. On the other side of the new year, Hideki saw four starts in PGA play, including one withdrawal and three finishes ranging from T25 to T40. Following a layoff, in the month of January he has been ramping up his production, finishing T21, T48 and most recently T9 at the Farmers Insurance Open.
With the recent track record and the buildup of increasingly stronger production, it seems to me that Matsuyama has had this one circled to reclaim his crown and take this tournament for a third time. I love his chances in this star-studded field, and if he can’t get it done on Sunday, I feel very strongly that he will at least be in contention.
Win +5500
Top 10 +500
Top 20 +210
This pick is a bit different from the choice of Matsuyama above, but given the odds and a handful of other factors, I also could not pass this guy up. The 25-year old is currently ranked 36th in the world, and after a breakout season last year, he could be on the verge of breaking out even further beyond what we have seen.
Theegala is still in search of his first PGA victory, but after five top 10 finishes last year and four already in the 2022-23 season, his odds were way too strong to pass up. His most recent run, two weeks ago at the Farmers Insurance Open, saw him finish T4.
The pressure of this event proved to be miniscule for Theegala last season, as he finished T3 with a score of -15, just one shot off the lead. As a well-balanced player, this course suits him nicely and if he shows up in form, he is a true dark-horse to win this whole thing and springboard himself from his current 14th place standing in the FedEx Cup Standings. After a 28th place finish in the playoff race last season, I suggest you take advantage of this guy before it’s too late!!
