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NOTES: Let’s start with my model saying there are two teams which are dogs that it believes are favorites. The teams are ATL and TOR. The model prefers Morton and Ryu. Keep in mind that it does not know Acuna is likely not playing for a few days. Still, ATL is showing 37 basis points edge (7.81% EV+) and TOR 26 basis points edge (5.75% EV+).

My model still loves the Mets! Another BIG margin 40 basis points. Not a fan of CHC so I might take a good look into the validity of these odds.

There are some nice series starting. The CHW/CLE series has divisional implications. TOR/BOS series is good especially as both teams are hitting. ATL/NYY series is good just because they are both supposed to be good teams. ATL catching NYY at it worst but shorthanded (Acuna). MIN/OAK series are two good teams. MIN coming off Covid relief so be careful regarding who is in the lineup!

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Jeff Dawson


PS.. Hope everyone enjoyed the INDIANS +122️ Winner vs White Sox

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