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NOTES: There are 4 games with basis points variance 20+ in comparison to my odds. They are LAD 61, SEA 40, CHC 23, and KC 20. Note that my model does not account for injuries do it assumes teams are 100% for strength. This is partly why LAD are such a variance. Have you really looked at their lineup right now?

Overall, it appears as the HOME teams are getting more credit for playing home games. Most, if not virtually all, the variance edges are with the away teams. The likely cause is the books setting their home field edge vs mine. My model uses roughly 5 basis points which is a little over 1% edge for playing home games. I have messed with this number in the past and will track it to see if I need to adjust again. The variable is fans and what do they account for statistically for wins to home teams. Right now, it is likely the books like a bigger margin such as 10 points advantage. I am not so sure that is right but mine could also be too short.

Validation of team strength is important. Standings this early in the season do not provide an accurate indication. Keep an eye on run differential. AS the season progresses, and even now, teams that score more than they allow are strong teams. It is interesting to look at the run differential plus or minus in comparison to the winning percentages. For example,

every team in the NL East has a negative differential except the MIA Marlins! This indicates MIA has strength where the others do not. Early, so be careful how this might influence you, but the idea is to validate strength.

This is what it should look like. The best teams by winning percentage are at the top of the run differential as well. This one is a great. It shows us NOT to fall in love with the KC. Yes, plus differential, but they are not as strong as CHW! Over 162 games, this play out.

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Jeff Dawson


PS.. Hope everyone enjoyed the INDIANS +122️ Winner vs White Sox

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