NOTES: Weather has been an issue as 3 games were postponed on Friday. Based on a quick scan for Saturday, it will be cold in some places but we should get the games in. Most precipitation percentages were 13%. This changes, if the weather is an issue for you. look more detailed.
My lines have elements from FanGraphs projections. They updated them more drastically today which will impact lines. The largest note on that is BOS is now projected to win AL EAST!
The variances are thin. I list the ones with 20 basis points or more and there are only a couple. OAK is listed as -133 vs DET. My model says that the game is EVEN which is 33 basis points variance which is 7.08% EV+ for
The variances are thin. I list the ones with 20 basis points or more and there are only a couple. OAK is listed as -133 vs DET. My model says that the game is EVEN which is 33 basis points variance which is 7.08% EV+ for DET. DET SP Mize going for DET. MIL ANDERSON is -144 and my model likes them at -165 for 21 basis points variance.
TIP of the DAY: Home teams WIN more than away teams. I find myself wagering on away teams too often! Find value worthy of betting on home teams when you can. It does not mean avoid away teams but look at your wager list. Do you have 4 games and they are all away teams or 3 of them? Recipe for failure even though the odds and prices fall where you want them.
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Jeff Dawson
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PS.. Hope everyone enjoyed the INDIANS +122️ Winner vs White Sox
