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NOTES: I will be able to start doing totals soon. The data is pouring in now and my models are eating it up.

I am seeing a lot of variances today. I find 7 games where my model varies by 20 basis points or more. My models have been pretty good too. As usual, please throw out the one that is the largest variance (NYM Stroman 89 basis points). Look at LAD Bauer. He is a -115 FAV or Snell. My model suggests he is a -155 FAV over Snell! 40 basis points of variance and LAD as small favorites! LAD will be HUGE favorites in almost every game they play. Here is one where they are not.

The HOU 44 basis points are misleading. My model does NOT account for injuries in terms of short clusters. HOU is missing many regulars due to Covid concerns and this line is based on them at full strength. I found it to be extremely marginal when a team is missing one everyday player, but when there are 2 or 3 > missing, the line should be affected. When in clusters, the players missing also need to be understood to reflect in the odds properly. I still do not agree that HOU is a -110 FAV in this spot, I like them at -125.

It is odd to me that my model favors ARI Bumgarner. WSH is -187 but my model suggests -159 meaning he still getting respect in the odds. He is virtually an auto play against until he gets it going if he ever does.

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Jeff Dawson


PS.. Hope everyone enjoyed the INDIANS +122️ Winner vs White Sox

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