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What happens when you can’t find value?

Seemingly it is impossible to find nothing to bet during a baseball season yet it does happen. It has happened today for me. Not that I am off to a good start, but I am always applying a strategy to what I am doing. Nothing fits today.

I set a standard number of -150 as the Favorite threshold and rarely cross it. There needs to be a high EV+ edge to wager those games. Nothing is off limits and some things things should be rare. This is one for me. There are 9 games that are -150 or higher today. There are only 4 remaining opportunities. The only one where I am interested in (MIL) has a significant flaw. MIL is 30th to start the season. They have a -13.5 OFF WAR and wRC+ of 41. It means they are 59% worse than an average offense. This shuns me off that one. I do like TOR and TEX Under 8.5 based on the starting pitching. TEX has the 30th ranked bullpen so far, so that nixes that one! ARI shows value based on my line, but I don’t trust Bumgarner and neither COL or ARI are hitting. The teams I want to play are too expensive via the odds and the game that I have interest in are have a fatal flaw.

A lot people like to parlay big favorites to get a return when they both win. An example would CIN -210 and NYY -175 in a parlay would pay +124. I rarely do that as it is hard enough to win one game let alone two. However, you still have to find away to have fun. This could be an avenue for enjoyment but is a long term losing strategy. People wager for many reasons buy one of them should be because you enjoy it.

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Enjoy Masters Week & Weekend

Jeff Dawson


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